Footwear Update: Still going strong in athletic categories
Comment of the Day

November 24 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Footwear Update: Still going strong in athletic categories

This story dated November 14th from Detwiler Fenton & Co may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
We continue to see strength in running, although Y/Y increases appear to be moderating from high-double digits to mid to high singles. The lightweight / minimalist trend that has been going strong for over a year now persists, and we don't see any weakness so far with related sales currently running 2x last year's volumes. However, we are seeing classic / traditional running shoes softening a bit, bringing comp increases down into the high-single-digit range, while cross-training sales comps remain in the low teens. Athletic brands continue to post solid gains (NKE trading at new highs), which parlays to the retailers that carry branded performance gear such as Foot Locker (FL) and Finish Line (FINL). We also see continued traction with a growing trend of popularity in "outdoor" categories, which we believe will continue to deliver a tailwind to vendors and retailers with solid exposure such as Wolverine Worldwide (WWW) through Merrell, Patagonia,etc. We continue to monitor developments at Timberland (VFC), as VF crafts a robust game plan for its recent acquisition without abandoning Timberland's social conscience. The latest development is collaboration with Ringo Starr on "canvas that cares" which will fund non-profit organizations through the auction of limited-edition footwear.

Eoin Treacy's view Shoes and clothes are often viewed as status symbols and reflect a personal sense of style and fashion. Most brands are at the relatively affordable end of the price range, compared to cars, homes and bags and so can also reflect an aspiration to be considered modern and sophisticated. Shoes and clothes are some of the first items people invest in when they begin their upward progression into the middle classes and therefore reflect the growth of the global consumer.

Nike is the largest footwear and sportswear manufacturer and remains a leader in the sector. The company has a solid record of increasing dividends and currently yields 1.58%. Emerging Markets and Greater China represent its two fastest growing business units. The share is currently unwinding a short-term overbought condition and has almost completely reverted towards the mean. A sustained move below $85 would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

VF Corp (Nautica, Lee, Wrangler, Kipling, North Face etc) is a dividend aristocrat and yields 2.25%. The share had become quite overbought when it encountered resistance in the region of $140 four weeks ago and appears to be in the process of reverting towards the mean. A sustained move below $110 would be required to begin to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend.

PVH Corp (Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger, Van Heusen, DKNY etc.) has not increased its dividend since 2001 and currently yields 0.23%. Its business appears be growing across most of its units. The share has been largely rangebound, albeit with a mild upward bias, since early 2010. It has pulled back again, having hit a new high, and is currently mid range. Prices will need to sustain a move above $70 to offset Type-3 top formation characteristics.

Limited Brands (Victoria's Secret, La Senza) does not report geographical revenue data. The company as a solid record of increasing dividends and has made a number of special payouts over the last few years. The indicated yield, excluding such items, is 2.12%. The share has been trending consistently since early 2009, finding support in the region of the 200-day MA on successive occasions. It is currently approaching the MA and an upward dynamic would be required to indicate the return of demand in that area.

Under Armour exhibits an impressive growth trajectory and has a similar pattern to Nike above. Deckers Outdoor Corp also has similar characteristics.

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