Financial globalisation � Retreat or Reset?
Comment of the Day

March 15 2013

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Financial globalisation � Retreat or Reset?

Thanks to a subscriber for this report from McKinsey which may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section
Developing nations have significant room to deepen their financial system, and this scenario sees them making solid progress. Our database of global financial assets shows that equity market capitalization is only 44% of GDP in emerging economies, while bonds of non-financial corporations make up 4 percent of debt financing on average, and the value of securitized loans is less than 0.5% of GDP. Credit to households and debt of corporations is only 76 percent of GDP in emerging markets compared with 146 percent of GDP in advanced economies, indicating a great deal of room in increase credit to this sector. Past McKinsey research has estimated that SMEs in emerging markets face at least a $2 trillion credit gap.

This is also tremendous scope for providing formal banking services to the currently 2.5 billion “unbanked” people around the world. Greater financial inclusion would help many of the world's poorest households access affordable credit, accumulate savings, and improve their living standards, while accelerating financial deepening.

Eoin Treacy's view As emerging markets become progressively more developed demand for financial products such as corporate bonds, car loans, insurance and pensions represent significant growth trajectories. In addition to the fact that banks are purveyors of liquidity and often represent significant weightings in stock markets, this contributes to the fact that banks often occupy positions of leadership.

The Global 1200 Financials Index rebounded sharply from the 2009 low but has spent the last three and a half years ranging. The Index has returned to test the upper boundary near 1100 over the last few months and a sustained move below 1000 would be required to question medium-term recovery potential.

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