Fed's Evans Sees Yearslong Wait Ahead for Inflation Overshoot
Comment of the Day

October 05 2020

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Fed's Evans Sees Yearslong Wait Ahead for Inflation Overshoot

This article by Matthew Boesler for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

Federal Reserve officials will probably have to wait for years to see the inflation rate rise above the U.S. central bank’s 2% target, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said.

“I expect inflation to slowly improve, reaching 2% on a persistent basis in 2023 and then moderately overshooting 2% over the following few years,” Evans said Monday in remarks prepared for a speech at a virtual conference.

“We likely have a lot of work ahead of us. And it’s crucial that we acknowledge the magnitude of the job up front to help lessen the temptation to back off the overshoot too early in the process,” he said.

Eoin Treacy's view

Treasury yields have risen during past episodes of quantitative easing. The support given the bond market creates an incentive to move further out the risk curve in search of returns. That means less demand for Treasuries and more demand for everything else.

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