Fed's cheap cash lifts US out of spring swoon
Comment of the Day

April 29 2013

Commentary by David Fuller

Fed's cheap cash lifts US out of spring swoon

This is a good column by Irwin Stelzer for The Sunday Times (will require subscription registration, PDF also provided). Here is the opening and a couple of other brief samples

David Fuller's view Irwin Stelzer thinks the consensus from US economists on GDP growth mentioned in the paragraph immediately above is probably more accurate than the IMF's current views, and I am inclined to agree with him, provided we have seen the extent of President Obama's tax increases. This remains to be seen.

Eurozone countries are popular tourist destinations, and justifiably so. However, the cost of doing business in Europe remains punitive. This is the key reason why Europe's GDP has lagged for so long and it is likely to impede growth until policies change. Meanwhile, Europe's stock markets are doing somewhat better because Mario Draghi at the ECB is keeping rates low in an effort to encourage some recovery. He may not be printing money, unlike Mr Bernanke's Fed, but he is certainly willing to lend and government bond rates continue to range lower, as you can see from these 10-year government bond charts for Italy and Spain.

In comparison, US government 10-Year bond yields are even lower. More importantly, the US economy remains more dynamic despite President Obama's tax hikes. Crucially, shale gas and oil gives the USA a huge energy advantage relative to Europe. This is attracting energy intensive manufacturers back to the States. The US also has the most corporate Autonomies and these are mainly prospering in global markets. Europe has fewer successful Autonomies and the majority of these are from Germany, France and the UK. These factors are reflected by the USA's better stock market performance relative to Europe.

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