Facebook Shares Jump as Rising Sales Silence Mobile-Ad Skeptics
Comment of the Day

July 25 2013

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Facebook Shares Jump as Rising Sales Silence Mobile-Ad Skeptics

This article by Douglas MacMillan and Brian Womack for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section
Mobile ads, which made up 30 percent of revenue in the first quarter, will soon account for more than half of advertising dollars, Zuckerberg said on a conference call. The number of mobile users expanded 51 percent to 819 million during the quarter. The total number of Facebook members was 1.15 billion, compared with 1.11 billion in the earlier period.

“This quarter represents a strong validation that we're effectively navigating the shift to mobile,” David Ebersman, Facebook's chief financial officer, said in an interview. “All the investments we've been making in the business have been paying off.”

Facebook is projected to take 13 percent of the global mobile-advertising market this year, up from 5.4 percent last year, according to EMarketer Inc. Even so, the company remains a distant No. 2 to Google Inc., which is expected to grab 56 percent of the market in 2013.

Facebook has stepped up efforts with its mobile services, including updates to its smartphone applications and a new video feature for photo-sharing service Instagram.

Eoin Treacy's view While I must admit to still being baffled at the ease with which people are willing to share their most intimate details online, there is no denying that the trend towards greater connectivity, mobility and access to data is leading to major changes in the ways we are marketed to.

Today's rally breaks Facebook's progression of lower rally highs which has been evident since just after its IPO. Considering the size of the advance some consolidation of this gain is likely, but a sustained move back below the 200-day MA would be required to question medium-term potential for additional higher to lateral ranging.

Google continues to pause in the region of $900, in what has so far been a relatively gradual reversion towards the mean. A swifter pullback cannot be ruled out but a sustained move below the 200-day MA would be required to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend.

While some consolidation is likely in the majority of social media companies, LinkedIn and Yelp come to mind, the situation in China's US listed social media companies is worthy of mention. Sina.com and Baidu.com have broken their respective progressions of lower rally highs and sustained moves below their 200-day MAs would be required to question recovery potential.

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