In India, exit polls have often been off the mark but financial markets, among others, have rarely showed the patience to await the official results.
In 2014, most exit polls accurately predicted that the NDA had an upper hand over the UPA, but few foresaw that the BJP alone would get an absolute majority. In 2009, the UPA ended up getting more seats than forecast by polls.
In 2004, all exit polls had predicted a win for the NDA, but the Congress-led alliance’s triumph surprised the pollsters.
India is at an important juncture. It has millions of new voters entering the electorate at each election. That means politicians have to appeal to their interests if they are to secure power. Economic growth was the clear strategy which propelled Modi to power in 2014. Following the slow pace of reform over the last five years, a much more nationalistic and populist tone has been witnessed in electioneering.Click HERE to subscribe to Fuller Treacy Money Back to top