Europe
Comment of the Day

October 09 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Europe

Eoin Treacy's view As the European finance ministers meet to discuss the formation of a banking union, which will probably be the EU's equivalent of an FDIC, pessimism towards the region as an investment destination remains a consideration. While in the USA last week, the general attitude was one of unease with the pace of reform and uncertainty towards Europe's political class.

The Dow Jones Europe STOXX 600 has been ranging in a volatile manner since early 2010 but has held a progression of higher major reaction lows over the last year. The index trended higher since June and paused in the region of last year's high over the last month. A sustained move below 265 would suggest more than temporary resistance in this region.

With a number of indices in the region of their respective 2011 peaks and pausing over the last month, there is potential that at least some will break their more than four-month progressions of higher reaction lows on the next significant pullback. The Nasdaq's performance over the last week suggests the next corrective phase may already be underway.

Since my presentation at the Contrary Opinion Forum last week concentrated on the Autonomies that had, or were in the process of, completing more than decade long bases, I thought It might be instructive to click through the constituents of the STOXX 600 using 20-year charts in order to find similar chart patterns. My rationale is that leaders tend to lead for a reason and shares completing bases are less likely to be affected by short-term considerations.

I highlighted the outperformance of the UK services sector in a review on September 26th and the majority of related companies continue to trend higher. Among those not listed in the UK, Sodexo (listed in France), has a P/E of 18 and dividend yield of 2.43%. The share has been consolidating, with an upward bias, in the vicinity of its 2001 and 2007 peaks since April and retested the region of the 200-day MA this week. A sustained move below €58.50 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

While the brewing sector globally has been a relative outperformer, Heineken, listed in the Netherlands and yielding 1.76%, lagged until recently. The share hit a new all- time high last week and while somewhat overbought in the very short-term, a sustained move below the 200-day MA, currently near €42, would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside. Davide Campari is listed in Italy, yields 1.12% and completed a yearlong range early last month. A sustained move below €7 would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

In the foods sector Unilever yields 3.69% and is listed in the UK and Netherlands. The UK listing continues to extend its uptrend. Nutreco is listed in the Netherlands and yields 3.27%. The share has been consolidating below its peak near €60 since July and looks more likely than not to sustain and upward break.

In the cosmetics sector, L'Oreal is listed in France, yields 2.12% and is an S&P Europe-350 dividend aristocrat. The share broke out of an 11-year range in July and continues to consolidate in the region of the prior peak. A sustained move below the 200-day MA, currently near €92.50, would be required to check medium-term scope for additional upside. Beiersdorf (1.22%) has been trending consistently higher for a year and hit a new al- time high two weeks ago. A break in the progression of higher reaction lows, currently near €55 would be required to question potential for additional upside.

In the paper and timber products sector, Mondi Plc. is listed in the UK, yields 3.69% and is testing the upper side of its more than yearlong range. A clear downward dynamic would be required for this area to offer anything other than temporary resistance. In the packaging sector Rexam is a global leader, widely diversified, yields 3.59% and P/E of 14.4. The share continues to trend consistently higher and hit a new recovery high last week; completing the six month range.

In the pharmaceuticals sector, Bayer is listed in Germany, yields 2.41% and surged over last six months to post new all-time highs. While overbought in the short-term, a sustained move below €60 would be required to check medium-term potential for additional upside.

The recent outperformance of the insurance sector is worthy of mention not only in Europe but globally. Swiss Re yields 4.7% and is representative. The share broke out of a two-year range in February, found support in the region of the upper side of congestion area from June and hit a new recovery high last week. A sustained move below CHF60 would be required to question medium-term potential for continued upside. Hannover Reuckversicherung is listed in Germany and yields 3.99%. The share completed a 14-year base in January, found support in the region of the previous peaks from June and continues to extend its advance.

In the materials sector, copper fabricator Aurubis is listed in Germany and yields 2.58%. The share broke out of its 18-month range last month and a sustained move below €42.50 would be required to question medium-term potential for additional upside.

In the chemicals sector Synngenta is listed in Switzerland and yields 2.27%. The share hit a new all-time high last week and while somewhat overbought in the very short-term, a break in the yearlong progression of higher reaction lows would be required to question medium-term uptrend consistency.

In the financial sector the UK's Provident shares a great deal of commonality with the USA's Visa and Mastercard. The share yields 5.53% and is testing the 1999 and 2001 peaks following an impressive advance since June. While there is scope for some further consolidation of recent gains, a sustained move below 1200p would be required to question medium-term scope for a successful upward break.

Within the defence sector, aerospace has been outperforming for at least year. (Also see Comment of the Day on December 2nd 2011). German listed MTU Aero Engines yields 1.87% and is currently testing the upper side of a six-month range. Zodiac Aerospace is listed in France and yields 1.52%. The share has been in a gradual process of mean reversion since April and retested the 200-day MA last week where it found at least short-term support. A sustained move below €75 would be required to question medium-term upside potential. Safran is also listed in France, yields 2.1% and completed an 8-year base in 2010. It has been ranging between €20 and €30 since and is currently testing the upper boundary.

The above shares highlight the fact that despite widespread pessimism towards Europe, there are a considerable number of shares that are exhibiting patterns of renewed investor interest. In this review I deliberately concentrated on companies we have not mentioned in a while, in order demonstrate the broad based patterns of demand dominance.

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