Euro Leaders' Fiscal Union Pact Leaves Next Step to ECB
Comment of the Day

December 09 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Euro Leaders' Fiscal Union Pact Leaves Next Step to ECB

Here is the opening from Bloomberg's report on latest developments in a political drama which continues to dominate market sentiment:
European leaders' blueprint for a closer fiscal union to save their single currency left the onus on central bankers to address investor concerns that Italy and Spain would succumb to the two-year-old financial crisis.

On the 20th anniversary of the Maastricht summit that created the euro and 19 months since leaders forged their first plan to contain the debt turmoil, leaders added 200 billion euros ($267 billion) to their warchest and tightened rules to curb future debts. They sped the start of a 500 billion-euro rescue fund to next year and dropped a demand that bondholders shoulder losses in rescues.

While European Central Bank President Mario Draghi hailed the accord struck at all-night talks in Brussels, investors urged him to expand his crisis-fighting arsenal to ensure debt- addled nations can pay their bills. Italian and Spanish bonds fell even as the ECB was said to be buying them in the market.

"The leaders have now defined the end point they want to reach in terms of fiscal governance, but it's a long way to go there," Thomas Mayer, Frankfurt-based chief economist at Deutsche Bank AG, told Bloomberg Television. "We'll probably see more near-term tension and that will probably then trigger a more hands-on intervention by the ECB."

Leaders set a deadline of March for agreeing the language of the new rulebook and for reassessing plans to cap the overall lending of their permanent rescue facility at 500 billion euros.

The summit's fiscal pact sets Europe on the path to a "lastingly stable euro," German Chancellor Angela Merkel told reporters.

"The breakthrough to a stability union has been achieved."

David Fuller's view If you are tired of hearing about the latest developments in this long-running political drama which continues to hold markets in thrall, you are certainly not alone.

It is analogous to watching, day after day, breathless politicians, bureaucrats and technocrats struggling to push a vehicle up a mountain, towards what they hope is a summit of stability. Only the euromobile does not resemble a state-of-the-art BMW or a slick Ferrari. Instead, it resembles a faltering, backfiring Trabant, similar to those conceived in East Germany before the Berlin Wall was torn down.

Breathless officials push from the rear and berate their reticent colleagues on the sidelines, while others struggle to keep the euromobile's wheels attached. Mrs Merkel, hands firmly on the steering wheel, calls for another disciplined heave. The ECB seems to be beckoning from the distant summit.

David Cameron is a distracted observer, experiencing the ambivalence of a man watching his mother-in-law drive off a cliff in his brand new uninsured car.

Needless to say it is all rather disconcerting for investors. However, we can say that against most expectations, the euromobile rescue is still inching forward. And it needs to in order to stay just ahead of the bond vigilantes snapping at European officials' heels.

Meanwhile, for markets everywhere, the worst case is that the euromobile rolls back down the hill, out of control and smashes to pieces. That would be worse than 2008. However, Fullermoney thinks that risk is less than 25 percent, and it decreases a little further with each weary or contentious step towards fiscal union and an ECB fully acting as lender of last resort.

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