Euro Falls to Lowest Since March as Draghi Eases Nerves on QE
Comment of the Day

October 21 2016

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Euro Falls to Lowest Since March as Draghi Eases Nerves on QE

This article by Anchalee Worrachate and Lananh Nguyen for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

The declines came as speculation faded that central bankers back a sudden end to QE after March, which is the latest date that they’ve committed to for the program. Pacific Investment Management Co. predicts the ECB will actually ease further in December and that it won’t remove stimulus until inflation is “solidly on track” for its goal of close to 2 percent.

?“The euro in general has been weakening” on expectations that the ECB will extend stimulus, said Sireen Harajli, a foreign-exchange strategist at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in New York.

“This is all the after-effects of the ECB meeting -- the message has been quite clear by Mr. Draghi that tapering is not on the table.”

The euro dropped 0.6 percent to $1.0864 as of 1:36 p.m. in New York, after touching the lowest since March 10, when the ECB cut its main interest rates to record lows. The shared currency has fallen 1 percent versus the greenback this week, and is down against most of its 16 major peers.

Eoin Treacy's view

The year beginning in December 2016 is going to be a big one for Europe. An Italian referendum potentially followed by an election, as well as scheduled, German, French, Dutch, Czech, Hungarian and Slovenian elections will all conspire to contribute to uncertainty. If these are the known knowns then we must also be prepared for surprises. Against that background it is hard to imagine how the ECB could be in a position to withdraw stimulus, particularly when it is still engaged in a negative interest rate policy. 

The Euro has now broken a progression of higher reaction lows evident since early this year against the Dollar. A clear upward dynamic will be required to check potential for a test of the lower side of the 18-month range near $1.05. 

The Euro STOXX 50 Index has returned to test the upper side of this year’s range and is now trading above the trend mean. A clear downward dynamic will be required to check potential for additional upside; at least in nominal terms. 

 

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