Eoin's personal portfolio:
Comment of the Day

February 04 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Eoin's personal portfolio:

cotton short and IAMGold long initiated

Eoin Treacy's view I attempted to short cotton unsuccessfully last month in the hope that prices would fall back below 140¢. This was an incorrect assumption and left me exposed to a bounce from the lower side of the short-term range. Despite this negative experience, I decided to try shorting again today and sold a March contract at 169.92¢ including spread-bet dealing costs. The risk to this trade is that the ICE measures to contain speculation prove unsuccessful in the short-term and that yesterday's key is immediately countermanded.

IAMGold was a leading performer among gold shares following the credit crisis but had become quite overextended when it hit a medium-term peak in December 2009. It spent much of 2010 consolidating, mostly above the rising 200-day MA and broke upwards yesterday. A clear downward dynamic would now be required to check potential for some additional upside. I opened a long just before last night's close, paying $20.37 for a June contract including spread-bet dealing cost.

Gold shares - I last reviewed the constituents of the NYSE Arca Goldbugs Index on January 27th when the Index had fallen back to retest the upper side of the previous range, the 2008 peak and the trend mean represented by the 200-day MA. The Index was showing tentative signs that demand was regaining the upper hand, but I concluded that more substantive evidence was required to confirm the hypothesis.

Yesterday's upward dynamic lent further support to the view that the pullback from the December peak has been a 'normal' reaction within a relatively consistent medium-term uptrend. A sustained move below 500 would now be required to question potential for some additional upside.

Barrick Gold, IAMGold, New Gold, Companhia de Minas Buenaventura, AngloGold Ashanti, and Hecla Mining have posted some of the more convincing upward dynamics from the region of their respective 200-day MAs.

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