Emails of the day (2 & 3)
Comment of the Day

January 10 2013

Commentary by David Fuller

Emails of the day (2 & 3)

More useful feedback following my request for information on either climate change or consistency, in terms of what subscribers are experiencing in their own countries, and I thank both subscribers for their word-perfect emails which I can process more quickly
"Our family has owned the same farm on the east coast of NZ's South Island for the last 140 years (Sept 1872), and we've kept daily rainfall data since January 1931 which we forward to the Metservice. The driest decades for our property over that period were the 60's, 80's and 00's, while the 70's was the wettest.

"We have not kept temperature or windflow records but my observation would be that EVT (evapotranspiration) has increased due to warmer average temperatures and stronger winds. Our region (Canterbury) is a rain shadow area and suffers from a classic foehn wind - the "Nor Wester" - very hot and dry - that results from the prevailing westerlies dropping their moisture in order to climb over the Southern Alps. Global warming is predicted to magnify that natural pattern - ie more NW winds, resulting in even more rain for the West Coast (parts of which are among the wettest areas in the world) and more drought for the East Coast. The higher EVT (which can be up to 7mm per day) means that the rain we do get does not provide the same benefit as in decades past as it is sucked out of the ground by the NW wind.

"We do seem to be getting more frequent extreme weather events - snow, heavy rain, wind, drought which is consistent with GW predictions. Farming outdoors has become a riskier business (the VIX has increased!)"

And

"The December average level of Great Lakes Michigan/Huron are at record lows.


"Today we have temperatures in the forties in January. Our cross-country skis haven't been out of storage in three years due to a lack of snow.

"It's alarming how quickly the Wisconsin climate changed. In the 1980's we had record high lake levels and correspondingly low temperatures. Lake Michigan (22,400 square miles) completely froze over and the Wisconsin winters were cold with many blizzards."

David Fuller's view Re New Zealand South Island east coast: Thanks for your contribution and I am sorry to hear of the riskier environment for farming in your region. It is also the first email on this recent Fullermoney subject not to mention warmer weather. I wonder if that is because you are much closer to the South Pole than the North Pole?

Re Wisconsin, USA: Thanks also and this is notable for considerably warmer and drier weather, with the latter adversely affecting industrial freight in the Great Lakes.

Incidentally, this focus on global weather experienced by subscribers in their home regions is not intended as a diversion from global markets and my objective is certainly not political. However, if weather trends are beginning to change beyond occasional anomalies relative to what we have experienced over decades, there will obviously be financial implications although not entirely of an adverse nature. I think we need to know what is really going on, and I trust firsthand regional opinions from subscribers more than what I hear from anyone who may have ulterior motives. It is akin to looking at price charts rather than listening to market views from people who are often talking their book.

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