Email of the day two different perspectives on Brexit
Comment of the Day

June 27 2016

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day two different perspectives on Brexit

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/b1a2d66e-3715-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7.html
The Financial Times publishes this [“Five consequences of the UK’s exit from the EU”], living up to its highest "standards" of political elitism. Let's just take a moment to review a few key points in this article: 

(1) "they [EU countries] will be in no mood to offer generous post-Brexit [trade] deals for Britain" - complete bullshit; they will fall all over themselves to get the best possible deals with Britain, because it is in their economic best interest to do so.

(2) “The outlook for Portugal, which is ruled by a shaky coalition of the moderate and radical left, is unsettling investors. The deep-seated troubles of Greece have never gone away. In Spain, which holds a general election on Sunday, the prospects for stable government and economic reform are clouded by a fragmented political party system and Catalan separatism.” – And this has exactly what to do with Brexit? As a global investor, I am not one whit more worried about these (very real) issues than I was before – I was worried before, and still am, not more or less so because of Brexit. On the other hand, I am now far more optimistic about British business, especially the British-based autonomies.

(3) “What does this mean for populist insurgents?” – since when are VOTERS who do not share the current-government-approved point of view “insurgents”? This is the poorest standard of journalism I have yet to see from the FT. I’m guessing new lows will be set shortly.

(4) “the EU will be under pressure to develop proposals for closer integration” – I’d say the EU will be under pressure to reform the unelected bureaucratic nightmare it has morphed into. Not that we should expect such a miracle. If anything, Brexit will invigorate those voters across the EU who believe that it is time to throw off the yoke of the unelected super-government. Power to them!

(5) “Brexit will disrupt the EU’s internal equilibrium.” As if the EU had internal equilibrium to start with. Unless of course one imagines that equilibrium can be achieved while the EU Empire is crumbling. 

Brexit is not the cause of the failure of the EU – the EU has been failing since at least 2008. The EU is failing because it is a ruinous socialist (and ultimately totalitarian) experiment. Huzzah for the British voters. Huzzah for democracy in action.

Versus

Let's have a look at what we have achieved with the Referendum results this week: 
1/ The GBP fell sharply; and this has been one of its sharpest losses ever; 
2/ The reputational damage to the UK has been crystallised and is very material;
3/ The most immediately threatened Union now is not the EU, but the UK;
4/ Great political uncertainty, and an almost newly elected parliament is being deprived of its powers and significance;
5/ Great economic uncertainty;
6/ Great geopolitical uncertainty;
7/ Reduced influence in the EU;
8/ Alienated EU citizens.

The GBP?
The reaction of the GBP on Friday is a clear indication that the Brexiteers must still get the financial markets on their side, and a great deal of explanation is very urgent indeed. 

This devaluation is a shock-absorber for the short term only, but will not help the country to increase productivity, will not revert the promise of increased minimum wages (the final nail in the coffin of the economy of the north?), will do nothing to improve the budget deficit, nor the high level of leverage, and it definitely won't help the still part-nationalized banking system. Hopefully the UK government bonds will continue to function as a safe haven, but can we rule out that we may see the knee jerk reaction of Friday undone? Stocks in domestically operating companies in the meanwhile tumbled (see e.g. the banks and the homebuilders, in EUR or USD). 

Last: a weaker pound will also mean that people will have fewer opportunities for travelling, which is bad for an already inward looking population.

Reputational damage
Hopefully it is now clear to everyone why a referendum was the wrong way to go, and how dilettantishly the whole process has been managed: 51.9% is not the qualified majority you would expect to see to take such an important decision for so many people. Especially if out of a 72.2% turnout, and with a significant part of resident/taxpayers/stakeholders not being given the opportunity to vote. This is the reason why there will not be - and there have not historically been - similar referenda in Europe, whatever some uninformed and/or intellectually dishonest press is suggesting in these hours. 

All this comes on top of the exorbitant number of lies which have been used to manipulate the public, and that are now already emerging (this is tragicomic, but on all media in Europe and worth watching https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cA3XTYfzd1I). 

The referendum had also a divisive effect as - generally speaking - the old voted the young out of the EU; as a result, not only young people are thrown in economic uncertainty, but also their opportunities have been restricted as presumably the job market of nearby Europe will not be as easily accessible going forward. 

On the other hand all those that "rotated" into the UK as it was regarded a safe haven guaranteeing good governance, a careful management of the economy and of its currency will now reconsider their stance. A simple example: all those Southern Europeans which sustained the property market during the Euro crisis may now realise this country is no safe heaven.

The Union?
Nicola Sturgeon has clearly signalled a new referendum for Scotland independence is possible, so we are back to square one on that front. Given that Scotland has shown it is generally in favour of remaining in the EU, we can assume the SNP may be successful this time. An alternative and a lot more benign scenario is that the Scottish government may also completely bloc the Brexit process, although this is unclear at the time of writing. 

As for the EU, as many were ready to predict its immediate demise: 
1/ Within the EU, no other country is planning to leave;
2/ it is clear and logical to expect that ruling parties across Europe will be keen to make an example of the UK.

Also: the situation in which pro-Brexit movements managed to put this country is that of a trader being forced to unwind a leveraged position - and a complex one, built over 40 intense years - with a counterparty only (the EU), which means that inevitably the unwind will be expensive.

Political uncertainty?
The general feeling I think any observer has had over the last 48 hours or so is of most political parties across being caught off-guard and unprepared, as if they had discounted Brexit never to happen. This is alarming, as we need the best this country can offer to sit down with the EU and sort out what could otherwise become a "pasticcio", a mess. Hopefully Boris Johnson, Micheal Gove and Nigel Farage planned this is detail, they are great statists and Machiavellian geniuses and know exactly what they're doing. A 1-year old parliament in the meanwhile - at least until now - has been defrauded of its function, an absolutely extraordinary and alarming scenario which has taken to a debate and a vote that have absolutely nothing to do with democracy. A bad experiment never to be repeated again.

Geopolitical uncertainty
I have this image of Putin rolling on the floor and laughing that I just cannot get away from my head. A nuclear power, permanent member of the UN security council, significantly weakened its and its partners' position. The front of liberal democracies in the world is substantially weakened. 

Reduced Influence
Reduced influence and a greatly impoverished EU. The resignations of the Commissioner for Financial Services Jonathan Hill means that the UK loses influence - traditionally overwhelmingly high - in the definition of financial services regulation. Presumably UK representative in the European parliament will lose credibility and influence too. Disastrous for the UK and for the EU, and a material change in the balance of powers within the continent.

Alienated EU citizens
Rarely in my life I have seen so many people so upset and feeling let down as over the last few hours talking to friends and family members. 

I have been blessed to be part of an EU, and never felt - never once - like an immigrant, here, in Stockholm where I have spent some of my time studying, in Baden Wuttenberg which I have many times visited for personal reasons, nor anywhere else within Europe. Free movement has always been a given; protection of my rights of EU citizen as well. 

In London, more than 60% of the population voted to remain in the EU. The truth is that the population of this great city includes many EU citizens who could not vote. Hence the percentage of residents in favour on the EU is much much higher. 

I still think this situation can be somehow fixed, but a much better prepared, morally stronger, more humble and less opportunistic political class is a pre-requisite for considering the UK again the place to invest and make plans for the future.

Eoin Treacy's view

These two emails are representative of the wide differences between the Remain and Leave camps and while one might argue that a first past the post allotment is not the best way to decide such a momentous event the reality is that the people have spoken and it is now up to the ruling class to follow through on it. 

There is no doubt that the UK has challenges ahead of it and there is a need for vision of what its future will be. I don’t see any reason the UK cannot fulfil a role relative to Europe similar to that which Hong Kong does to China. That of course would be predicated on the UK adopting a low tax, free market, trade oriented and sensible regulation models which would be the polar opposite of what is now available elsewhere among major European economies. 

Another alternative which might help alleviate the disappointment of London’s Europhiles would be to adopt a Vatican city structure where the City of London and its immediate environs remain within the EU and holds onto its financial services passport while the rest of the country gets out from under the overbearing regulatory environment so many people take issue with. 

The point of course is that as a result of this referendum there is now no potential policy outcome that is off the table. Strong leadership and a vision for a strong, confident and competitive economy free to co-operate where fruitful relationships can be found should be embraced rather than feared. However if the study of crowd psychology tells us anything it is that the mob is powerfully discriminatory and those who benefit most from the EU will be most insulted at any threat to the status quo. By choosing to leave, UK negotiators will undoubtedly encounter a number of bruised egos on the other side of the table when they sit down with the EU’s representatives.   

The relative weakness of the Pound means the economy is currently enjoying a substantial boost to its competitiveness which represents a substantial boon for its export sector. There are a large number of benefits that can be offered to companies to stay within the UK now that it is no longer encumbered by EU competition rules so I would be hesitant to conclude there will be a mass migration. 

The Pound continues to plumb new depths and a clear upward dynamic will be required to signal a low of near-term significance. 

 

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