Thank you for this sweeping overview mid-week. Your conclusion that the next decade will be more about honing our trading instinct begs the question, what sectors would make the best tradeable core in this scenario? Would it continue to be technology where volatility provides outsized moves, or commodities where the underlying asset would be a store of value? As a follow-on question, would growth vs value become an obsolete paradigm, replaced perhaps by “cyclical sectors are king” paradigm? Thank you!

Eoin Treacy's view

Thank you for this question which may be of interest to the Collective. For anyone who missed the post on Tuesday, here is a link. 

There are several conflicting themes emerging for the remainder of the 2020s. Debt will be a big one because the secular trend of total return on bonds has been broken. The dalliance with modern monetary theory was the last hurrah for unbridled money printing. From here on out central bankers are likely to be a lot more cautious because an inflationary mindset is a very difficult psychological trend to break.