Email of the day on the reasons for bitcoin's rally
Comment of the Day

June 17 2016

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day on the reasons for bitcoin's rally

By the way great call on Bitcoin - unfortunately I did not allow enough for the volatility and got stopped out but still looking at it. Any update would be most welcome. Keep up the excellent work and best wishes to you and David

Eoin Treacy's view

Thank you for your kind words. As far as I understand it bitcoin is rallying for two primary reasons. The first is the reward for minting bitcoins, through solving blockchain equations, is due to halve within the month. That means the cost of production will double so the supply of bitcoins will be reduced.  

The second is that Chinese  investors are increasingly cottoning on to the fact that bitcoin represents both a hedge on their fears of Yuan devaluation and is also potentially a way of circumventing currency controls to take money out of the country. China accounts for the majority of bitcoin trading. The faddish nature of Chinese asset markets makes it prone to developing bubbly characteristics and bitcoin has the potential to represent another short-term mania and/or bust.

I have to admit that I am feeling trepidatious with my bitcoin long because it is such a volatile instrument. In lieu of feeling compelled to introduce a stop I have tailored the size of the position to cater to the volatility. The result is that the profit may not be as large as I might like (when is it ever?) but I have been able to continue to hold it and manage it in line with what I view as an appropriate strategy.

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