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My current dilemma/question is about silver - would you say that the fact that silver recently fell more than gold means we are coming out of phase 2 of the gold/silver bull market. Or can we still expect silver to go up in the medium term? If so, Is there a trigger point one should be looking for?
Silver is a high beta play on gold but the difficulty with that statement is that the condition is most applicable in the middle and late stages of the cycle. That means gold tends to lag gold’s performance by a wide margin at the beginning of the cycle. It then tends to trend higher against gold for the entire bull market.
The ratio between the two metals tells that story. Silver lagged gold until 2020. The ratio accelerated lower a year ago and since then silver has trended higher relative to gold. No big trend moves in a straight line. There will be periods of time when silver underperforms gold. It is the trend that is important.
The silver/gold ratio continues to hold its breakout and as long as that remains the case, we can continue to give the benefit of the doubt to outperformance.
In nominal terms silver has held up much better than gold and is now firming from the region of the trend mean.