Email of the day on the big question
Comment of the Day

August 12 2022

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day on the big question

Q: Are we in a bear or a bull?

Eoin Treacy's view

Thank you for voicing the question I believe everyone is asking. The short answer is yes, the long answer is more nuanced. Let’s frame this discussion in terms of the yield curve spread. The 10-year – 2-year is sharply negative. The 10-year – 3-month and the 10-year – Fed Funds Rate have both accelerated lower but are not yet negative. All three point toward significant monetary tightening. That is before the impending acceleration in the contraction of the Fed’s balance sheet is 

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