Email of the day on reflation candidates and whether it is too late
Comment of the Day

November 24 2020

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day on reflation candidates and whether it is too late

Eoin, the reflation trade seems to be well under way and you have repeatedly viewed commodities (both industrial and soft) to be an attractive investment for a lengthy period of time and at times, you have mentioned a possible investment vehicle. I suggest that you present those ETF/ETC and other funds/shares or a combination which you believe will best cover this area at the present time. I would think that many in the collective will appreciate getting such a list from you.

This also against the background that gold, PMs in general and PM miners seem to have to work off their overbought condition and for the time being, don't seem to be needed as safe havens as worldwide growth is picking up and neither inflation nor systemic risk are perceived as major issues at this time.

Therefore, in my view industrial and soft commodities should be the better investment compared to PMs for some time to come.

And

Dear Eoin, I hope you and the family are well. This "rotation" trade seems to have run quite far and I sense a general frothiness to markets, (apart from gold of course). Would, you go with the crowd here hoping for further gains? Or would you wait for a pull-back, (which today feels like it may never come) and maybe nibble at a few out of favour stocks/themes? Best wishes,

And

Interesting picking up on your views regarding soft commodities.  Some directly investable ideas seem hard to track down related to this theme in the UK market; really appreciate your suggestions as to how to invest in this and am sure others would be interested as well.

In general, the markets seem to be moving very rapidly at present, e.g. Royal Dutch, +5%, Glencore +5% etc, so your guidance about how best to play these trends that you are identifying is hugely helpful in your day to day notes and commentary.  

And

It would be useful to have a list of ETFs to play a number of different themes: 1) COVID recovery candidates like airlines and hospitality, 2) value, 3) small caps, 4) general Asian exposure.

Eoin Treacy's view

Thank you all for these questions which highlight the emotional difficulty of buying breakouts. When sectors and indices trade out to new highs there is always a temptation to think they may have already gone too far. The big question then is to gauge whether the animating factor behind the breakout has the potential to persist.

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