if we are at peak inflation now, as some suggest, do you believe it's time up for the commodity trade? Freeport, Anglo, Alcoa has vicious pull backs this week from highs, with some of those having key week reversals. If you've made money, take shelter and come back another day, or stick it out because the longer-term structural story is intact?
Thank you for a topical question. The big question at present is whether we are in a cyclical or secular bull market for commodities and industrial resources in particular.
The cyclical argument runs that the current conditions are similar to the post credit crisis rebound. From early 2009 commodities rallied from depressed levels to new highs inside of three of years. Then monetary conditions tightened as balanced budget measures were imposed in both the USA and Europe. As monetary conditions tightened, and the Dollar strengthened, commodities peaked went through a crushing bear market for the next five years.Click HERE to subscribe to Fuller Treacy Money Back to top