You have commented on the Aussie dollar and the Norwegian kroner as commodity-determined currencies. What is your view on the Canadian dollar?

Eoin Treacy's view

Thank you for this question which others may have an interest in. Yes, Canada as a major commodity exporter cannot avoid energy, grain and metal prices having an influence on the value of the Loonie. 

The US Dollar has held a progression of higher reaction lows against the Canadian Dollar since 2012 and a sustained move below C$1.10 would be the minimum required to question medium-term potential for additional strength. 

Taking a broader perspective, the New Zealand Dollar has been supported by the relative strength of the Kiwi economy and the differential with low interest rate regimes. However the 75¢ area will need to hold if Type-3 top formation completion is to be avoided.

The Brazilian Real has firmed recently from the region of the 2008 low following a steep decline. However a sustained move below BRL2.4 would be required to question medium-term US Dollar dominance.

The South African Rand has stabilised in the region of its 2008 low but a break in the US Dollar’s three-year progression of higher reaction lows will be required to check what has been a consistent period of outperformance.

Russia has rather publicly been buying gold at least in part to shore up the Ruble but more will be needed to convince investors the rate has stabilised.