Email of the day on Brexit and a federal Europe
Comment of the Day

June 20 2016

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day on Brexit and a federal Europe

Thank you for posting the link to Jacob Rees-Mogg's referendum speech. I thought it was calm, clear and thorough. In particular, it homed in on the central question - do we want to live in a democracy? If I may, I'd like to draw your attention to a shorter video that I believe covers an oddly overlooked part of the debate - the history of the EU: The initial two minutes of graphics and information are followed by five minutes summing up that history. I can see it's drawn heavily from the well-researched Booker and North book mentioned at the end. My feeling is that it should be compulsory viewing for anyone intending to vote so that they know what they're voting for. I thought they handled such a dry topic extremely well. I've found that that video leads very well into Jacob Rees-Mogg's, and have included both links in emails to interested friends. My very best wishes and thanks to you all. 

Eoin Treacy's view

Thank you for this instructive piece. The democratic issues raised by the Brexit campaign and the history of the European Federalist agenda are important considerations. However it is looking increasingly unlikely that the vote in a few days will result in the UK leaving the EU and markets are responding accordingly. 

The FTSE-350 Index has rebounded to test the region of the trend mean but will need to sustain a move above it to confirm a return to demand dominance beyond the short term. 

The Pound has staged an impressive 3-day rally against the Dollar to retest its highs for the year. Upside follow through would break the progression of lower rally highs and signal a return to demand dominance beyond the short term. 

Having briefly moved into negative territory last week, German Bund yields have bounced. At least an unwinding of the short-term overbought condition is underway. 

US 10-year yields are bouncing once more from the psychological 1.5% area and a clear downward dynamic would be required to question potential for a continued reversion back upwards the mean. 

The above charts suggest the risk-off attitude that was growing among investors has peaked in the short-term with traders covering shorts and opening longs. 

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