Email of the day on AI/Deep learning promises
Comment of the Day

May 13 2022

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day on AI/Deep learning promises

Eoin, your comment "I feel bombarded with podcasts, YouTube videos, analysts and reports telling me about the inevitability of AI and deep learning transforming the global economy" is important. This is typical of the initial excitement about any new technology. History shows it takes 'a generation' (20-25 years) for a new technology to go through its slow and expensive development phase, with many failures in the early years despite the hype, followed by disillusionment for several years, or a decade or so, before it actually begins to pay back. I presented the data at David's Markets Now many years ago. Gartner capture this in their Hype Curve/Cycle chart. The initial hype phase is where Venture Capitalists get involved and they aim to exit before the disillusion phase sets in. Investors in public markets have to await the third phase, when the technology matures and starts to be economic. We'll get there with AI / Deep Learning - but not quite yet!

Eoin Treacy's view

Thank you for this grounded email and I completely agree. The promise of AI will be delivered upon but that doesn’t often equate to a smooth ride for investors which is the big challenge at present. High valuations and high interest rates don’t play well together.

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