Email of the day
"I seem to detect a potential Sym Triangle forming between the 2007 -2008 highs and the 2009 low. This could soon be broken to the upside, as could the similar downtrend line from the aforementioned highs. Overhead resistance at 26 has been overcome, and the share is right on the 200d MA today, at around 26.5 €. The quarterly results have shown progress.
"Given the above, would you agree that the prospects for the share price have improved?"
David Fuller's view You could be right and RDS
has improved recently, which it needed to do as it had been a serial underperformer
since last August. However, we know that choppy and predominantly ranging chart
patterns are more difficult to predict, because they reflect unresolved uncertainty
and disagreement among participants.
While the underperformance has been disappointing, it is not too surprising given the overall slowdown in global GDP growth during the last year. This has weighed particularly heavily on resources shares which are often cyclical performers. Moreover, a degree of additional uncertainty towards the energy sector has resulted from the growing variety of different supplies.
RDS is one of the leading independent participants in shale gas and oil. I think this is a good position to be in but it is not without an additional degree of uncertainty, given the comparatively recent advent of fracking technologies. RDS has invested heavily in this sector, as you know. Meanwhile, I agree that the latest results have shown progress and the dividend near 5% is a consolation for our patience.
In terms of full disclosure, RDS B (LN) is one of the larger holdings in my personal long-term portfolio. I have built this position in recent years and will continue to hold it, not least because it is competitively valued at current prices and global demand for energy increases almost every year.