Email of the day
Comment of the Day

April 15 2013

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day

On Vietnam
"At the beginning of 2013, you predicted good things for the Vietnamese economy. Could you please give an update on this sector including how developments might best be followed? Thank you."

David Fuller's view Sure, but was it the Vietnamese economy or its stock market? I think it was the latter but Vietnam's frontier economy is probably an attractive long-term growth prospect, subject to governance.

I would say the same for Vietnam's stock market (weekly & daily) which shows a lengthy right-hand extension to its V-bottom recovery in 2009, although this could easily have some further medium-term upside scope, also subject to governance.

First, however, Vietnam is not avoiding the global corrective phase for stock markets. The rally was capped by a big downside key day reversal on 10th April and it also fell sharply on Friday and again today. Therefore it has seen a peak of at least near-term significance and the February low at 460 needs to hold if this is just a short-term correction.

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