"Dear David, I hope everything is fine in London. I have been a long-term holder of gold (unleveraged) for the last five years. In the last 15 months my holdings have experienced profit erosion. I am still deep in the money but after watching price action last week I am afraid we could see more sell-off in the PM. The trend is your friend until it changes, someone said.
"What could be, in your opinion, a threshold to watch in order to asses if the bull market is over?"
David Fuller's view Thank you for
your email of general interest.
When you read the "My personal portfolio" section below, you will see that I have just closed my highly leveraged recent and losing long positions in gold and silver futures. You will also see my further assessment of these markets, which may help you to decide what to do.
If I had been holding unleveraged gold, I would almost certainly not have sold. However, I would be more concerned if gold fell beneath its 2011 and 2012 lows near $1522 for more than a day or two, as that would break a long range of previous support.
Lastly, this very interesting article from Seeking Alpha immediately below may also be of interest to you.