Email of the day
Comment of the Day

August 06 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day

On the Olympics and UK property:
"Thank you for the wonderful Friday audio. I am enjoying thoroughly the infectious enthusiasm in London for the Olympics. Yet there is always time to made for Comment and the Audio -- not least because it provides a soothing contrast to the jingoistic fever that the BBC Sport presenters seem to have contracted. Anyway, my question: it seems reasonable to me that the almost inevitable bursting of the long dated UK government bond market will cause a marked acceleration in the downward trend of still very expensive (over priced) UK house prices. Or am I missing something? The reason I ask is that I plan to remain invested in Fullermoney themes until UK house prices correct downwards at which time I will then look to purchase a property. I would therefore be interested in your or Eoin's view".

David Fuller's view Thank you for your kind words regarding Comment and the Audio. Re the Olympics, I was certainly looking forward to them and I have not been disappointed. While delighted at the UK's medal haul what I most enjoy is seeing, when I get the opportunity, the world's very best athletes compete in such good spirit.

Regarding property, I gather that you are in London but you mentioned UK property without specifying. While the UK's property bubble has certainly been at least partially deflated in much of the country, especially in the north, this is not true of the southeast and London in particular, as you will certainly know. However, few London properties are now selling at their initial offering prices.

I agree that UK Gilt yields will eventually rise, and that could be an influence on London property prices, particularly at the middle to lower end of the market. However, the largely foreign buying of luxury homes would be less affected as those are usually cash transactions. Nevertheless, this month's increase in stamp duty on prices over £600,000 is likely to have some affect, at least in the short term.

The biggest factor in London property prices is the shortage of supply, particularly at the higher end of the market. London retains its pluralistic, cosmopolitan and cultural appeal. Should it become a less desirable location for any reason, which has not really been the case so far despite some tax increases, then property prices would be affected. Meanwhile, the Olympics showcased London for all who have watched these events.

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