Email of the day
Comment of the Day

March 19 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day

on the Sterling Trade Weighted Index:
“Is it possible to add a chart for the Trade Weighted Sterling Index?

“This is at an interesting juncture, being 3 years into an apparent basing phase after falling from its January 2007 peak. Within this consolidation range (between approx 75-85), the index has commenced a modest uptrend since June 2011, and in doing so broken through a modest downtrend that had been in place since mid-2009.

“Much against conventional wisdom, it's therefore possible that we're perhaps beginning to see the potential for a material upwards move in the Sterling Index.

“The Trade Weighted Sterling Index is the preferred way to monitor Sterling, it being the method used by the BoE for example. It doesn't seem a data set that's easy to come by on the Internet generally, and hence I'm hoping that it's something you could add to the Chart Library if it's possible to do so.

“Thanks for your help.”

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for this request which I'm sure others will have an interest in. We had the Bank of England Calculated Effective UK Exchange Rate Index in the hart Library but had trouble with receiving updates. We replaced it with the Deutsche Bank Trade Weighted Sterling Index which has an almost identical pattern and provides intraday values.

As you point out the Index has been basing since 2009, following a precipitous decline during the financial crisis. Demand has been returning mostly at progressively higher levels, following pullbacks since early 2009. A progression of higher reaction lows is evident since July 2011 and the Index is now testing the upper side of the base. A sustained move above 80 would complete this relatively lengthy congestion area and suggest a return to medium-term demand dominance.

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