Email of the day
Comment of the Day

February 02 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day

On risk on and off:
"I read an interesting article at a website soberlook.com. The article was titled "The story of two risk indices". They discuss the Credit Suisse Risk Appetite Index and the Fisher-Gartman Risk Index by Dow Jones. These indices were specifically constructed to monitor the "Risk-on-Risk-off" trade. I would appreciate your comments on these indices and is it possible to get one or both of these indices into the chart library?"

David Fuller's view I had a look at the article and the message seems to be that stock markets are now out of "panic mode." I am not sure we need an indicator for either that or 'risk-on-risk-off', since the unusually high levels of correlation that we have seen in recent years, which I attribute to high frequency algorithmic trading, have certainly been apparent across global markets. The Fisher-Gartman Risk Index is in the Library and it looks like a number of equity indices.


To summarise the Fullermoney view on stock markets, last August and September's downward acceleration was climactic, suggesting that the cyclical bear trend was ending; subsequent activity resembled support building; October's strong rebound was consistent with the beginning of a new cyclical bull market.

January's stunning upside performance has broken many medium-term downtrends while reaffirming the new uptrends. Most stock markets are technically overbought in the short term but downside risk appears limited to reactions and consolidations within the overall upward trends for this medium-term bull move which is being fuelled by increasingly accommodative monetary policy and significant cash reserves on the sidelines.

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