Email of the day (4)
Comment of the Day

April 24 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (4)

On JGBs:
"Could you possibly provide an update on your view on JGBs (assuming you still hold a position). Has this JGB rally been driven in part by central bank purchases (as part of their QEing) or is it simply another 'flight to dubious quality'? Technically, it does appear that the top suggested by the breakdown on March 15th was in fact yet another 'fake' and has simply been another humiliation of short sellers (including me I'm afraid). If you do still have a short position, could you possibly provide a steer on what level the market would have to achieve for you to cover your position.

David Fuller's view I do still hold the position, otherwise you would have heard about it. And for the record, my other trading positions are a long in gold and Nikkei futures, all of which I could have timed better. Technically, JGBs (historic, weekly & daily) look overextended in the short term but I am disappointed that they have pushed back into what I thought was a top area. It may still be if the BoJ does what it says it is going to do and I like your "flight to dubious quality" comment. I am holding on for the time being because even though the weekly chart still shows a gradual upward bias, there is far more ranging than trending and we could be at the top of the range.

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