"I so much enjoy your commentary and look forward to meeting Eoin in New York this month at the Chart Seminar. I do think that you have the Israeli - Iran issue wrong. Israel is very astute politically and will use politics to their advantage. It is apparent that the Obama administration is not very supportive of them compared to prior presidents. If they think Iran is going to be nuclear capable in the next year, they will hit Iran before the election. Hitting Iran before the election will force the administration to support the action so as not to alienate the Jewish votes and Jewish money.

"At the very least they will not openly oppose it. Israel will not wait and take the chance that President Obama is re-elected as then he would feel even less pressure to support them and do whatever he wants as was clear in the open mike comments with Medvedev. If a strike is going to occur in the next 18 months, it will be before the election."

David Fuller's view Thank you for your thoughtful comments and I know Eoin is looking forward to meeting you and other subscribers in NYC - the first time TCS has appeared there for many years.

Thanks also for your interesting scenario regarding a theoretical military strike by Israel against Iran before the US election. I agree that it has some plausibility, albeit Machiavellian, and in the nature of crises we can assume that every scenario has been considered. The reality is that only Benjamin Netanyahu really knows and he may not have made up his mind, although I suspect he has.

The value of the scenario above, which sounds like a Hollywood thriller to me, is that Iran's rulers might regard it as very plausible and therefore proceed somewhat more cautiously to attract less attention.

It is precisely because I agree that the Israelis are astute politically that I do not think they would undertake such a massive gamble. They, more than anyone else will be aware of the 'law of unintended consequences', most of which would be very negative for them, in attempting to bomb difficult and defended targets unilaterally, while hoping to coerce the Obama administration into support for election reasons.

I am sticking to what I said on Tuesday 27th March, in response to the WSJ article: How Washington Encourages Israel to Bomb Iran.