"This is a little bearish. However, I believe you know where I stand on the Euro."

David Fuller's view As an historian, George Friedman's views in Stratfor are often interesting but somewhat fatalistic, in my view. Here is a brief section on the history:

Europeanists dominate the coalitions that have replaced them. They come from the generation and class that are deeply intellectually and emotionally committed to the idea of Europe. For them, the European Union is not merely a useful tool for achieving national goals. Rather, it is an alternative to nationalism and the horrors that nationalism has brought to Europe. It is a vision of a single Continent drawn together in a common enterprise - prosperity - that abolishes the dangers of a European war, creates a cooperative economic project and, least discussed but not trivial, returns Europe to its rightful place at the heart of the international political system.

For the generation of leadership born just after World War II who came to political maturity in the last 20 years, the European project was an ideological given and an institutional reality. These leaders formed an international web of European leaders who for the most part all shared this vision. This leadership extended beyond the political sphere: Most European elites were committed to Europe (there were, of course, exceptions).

The west's indebted countries face approximately a decade of austerity which commenced in 2008. Most people realise this and those who would lead the Debtor's version of the west's Arab Spring are mostly from the socialist-leaning left, which mainly governs Europe, plus a small number of the usual anarchists and nihilists.

I think the political pendulum may well swing to the right, as it inevitably does from time to time, but probably not to the hard right which George Friedman fears. People could just as easily become more conservative with a small 'c'. If that means they expect less from the state and become more self-reliant while retaining some communitarian instincts, Europe will pleasantly surprise the pessimists.

I do think that Germany will need to sanction a temporary period of money printing by the ECB.

(See also Eoin's analysis on this subject below.)