Email of the day (4)
Comment of the Day

September 14 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (4)

On returning as a subscriber and SX7E:
"I used to be a subscriber via work through 2008, but services were cut. I personally subscribed a few weeks ago. Great to hear your dulcet tones again on the Audio! I was wondering whether you could add SX7E to the chart library, an index I am watching like a hawk to see when the turn comes, because I believe this will be a good indicator that the general market will turn. What relief for the general market if the EMU Banks could rally!! The December future posted a key day reversal on 13 September and with follow through today an interim low could be in place, or at least we could see a loss in downward momentum!

"PS Thanks for the advice on the Swissy from the Audio I played the breakout beautifully."

David Fuller's view Welcome back to Fullermoney and congratulations on seizing your market opportunities.

SX7E - the Euro STOXX Banks Index has been in the Library since its inception. You can locate it instantly (p&f, monthly, weekly & daily) by using the code. You would also locate it within the lists had you searched for Banks, Euro or STOXX.

It has fallen back to an interesting level and the world's investors will be looking for that turn. Watch for another weekly key such as we last saw at the 2009 low or some other equally clear upward dynamic. An upside reversal on the p&f chart would also be a potentially important signal.

Since Europe is currently at the epicentre of global economic concerns, evidence of a floor for the Euro STOXX Bank Index is a precondition for the next significant global stock market rally, in my view. Most commentators are not optimistic about a resolution to this crisis, as subscribers will have certainly noticed. Some even say that there is no solution!

I am under no Panglossian illusions as to the seriousness of the crisis but respectfully disagree. Most people now recognise that if Europe wishes to keep its euro, and it apparently does with the encouragement of other countries led by the USA and China, a much closer fiscal union is required.

European officials know this but there is much hand wringing about procedure, from the lack of mechanisms to facilitate necessary changes, plus revisions of the Constitution and the subsequent ratification of those changes.

In other words, it feels like the old gag regarding travel advice: "You can't get there from here." In the European crisis, the necessary travelling may feel like crossing the Somme but these are details. Get on with it.

At the end of the day, it is all about money and collective responsibility. Money can be earned, saved, borrowed, and if absolutely necessary, printed. Collective responsibility may not be innate but it can be both learned and taught; it is also an aspect of good governance.

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