Email of the day (3)
Comment of the Day

May 20 2013

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (3)

on Friday's big picture long-term audio
“Thank you so much for last Fridays long term outlook, reminded me of the old saying, "When in doubt, stand back and try to interperate what the charts are telling us".

“Could you be so kind as to smooth out the data feed for the Yen index, see attached.

"Wonder why you and many others use the 200 day MA, I`ve always used the 250, i.e. one year ?

“Noticed last week and this, the Topix 2nd section seems to have put in a useful tail on the daily!

“Agreed on India, I`m wondering whether it can break out of it`s 6 1/2 year triple peak, where the S & P took 13.”

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for your kind words and for highligting the Yen Trade Weighted Index. Unfotrunately, the data for this Index is prone to erroneous spikes which have now been corrected. We will endeavour to monitor it more regualrly. The Index rallied my approximately two thirds from the 2007 lows and has given up the majority of that advance since the beginning of the year. A break in the progression of lower rally highs would be required to question the consistency of the declilne.

I introduced a stop last week on my long in the Atlantis Japan Growth Fund because of the Topix 2nd Section Index's sharp decline. As you point out, it bounced back rather well to form another reasonably equal-sized reaction. A sustained move below last week's lows near 3200 would now be required to quesiton the consistency of the six-month advance.

Japanese 2-year yields have rallied from an historic low near 0,017% in February to break their progression of lower rally highs. Provided yields continue to hold above the 200-day MA, currently near 0,096%, the benefit of the doubt can be given to additional expansion.

We generally use the 200-day MA because it is so often viewed as the market convention.

India represents an interesting proposition not least because the country has received such bad press over the last couple of years. Bureaucratic ineptitude, corruption, political paralysis, the cruel treatment of women and the poverty of such a high proportion of the popualtion have all conspired to sully percetions of the country's potential. However, India is also a country that is likely to benefit more than most from lower commodity prices. This has allowed the RBI to reverse its tightening bias and the stock market has been responding. While there is scope for some consolidation of recent powerful gain in the region of the 2008 and 2011 highs, a sutained move below the 200-day MA, currently near 5700, would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

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