Email of the day (3)
Comment of the Day

July 13 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (3)

On the euro's survival chances:
"Do you still believe that because the euro is a political construct/decision it will survive?"

David Fuller's view That would not make sense. What I have actually said on a number of occasions is that because the euro is a political construct, it will survive for as long as the member states retain the collective will to hold it together. Germany is obviously the key participant in the euro agreement, because of its economic size and also its prior history.

I have also said that it was illogical for the euro to be a club which countries could join but never leave. Practical, not to mention financial realities are testing the collective will of eurozone officials and political leaders as never before, and their electorates are increasingly restless.

No one can know in advance how all this will play out. However, my guess is that the euro will survive, but it may lose at least Greece over the next few years. However, it is also likely to gain some more Eastern European countries in line with their accession treaties.

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