Email of the day (3)
Comment of the Day

March 25 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (3)

on the CRB Raw Industrial Spot Commodities Index
"Thank you for the graph of the 5X5 forwards. I understand that there is an index of commodities that are not traded on any futures market. The value of this index is based on the cash market prices of these commodities and it cannot possibly have any speculative element in it. I think that the index is called the RIND index. I do not know who calculates it. Could you kindly look into this and see if we could get a graph of this index into the library."

Eoin Treacy's view I believe the index you are referring to is the CRB Raw Industrial Spot Commodities Index which can be found in the Chart Library. Here is a link to David's most recent comment on the Index from February 19th and to a more detailed section from Comment of the Day on October 12th 2006.

One of the most important aspects of the CRB Raw Industrial Spot Commodities Index is that it does not contain energy or precious metals. This makes it much more sensitive to other areas of the commodity complex some of which have rallied impressively of late.

The constituents of the Index are copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, butter, soybean oil, lard, tallow, hides, rosin, rubber, hogs, steers, cocoa, corn, Kansas City wheat, Minneapolis wheat and sugar.

The Index has been supported by the recent impressive performance of animal products but also of scrap metals. This short piece from Bloomberg carries some additional information on the dearth of scrap supplies, this time in Germany. Here it is in full:

Germany's BDSV scrap metal group said there is a risk of shortages for the raw material used by steel mills. There was insufficient supply in some areas in the first quarter and that has contributed to an increase in prices, the association said today in a statement on its Web site.

Also see Comment of the Day on March 23rd for more on tight US scrap supplies.

The Index has regained most of the bear market decline and is currently retesting the 2008 high. While a somewhat lengthier consolidation in this region is a possibility, a break of the progression of higher reaction lows, currently near 460, would be required to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend.

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