Email of the day (3)
Comment of the Day

September 07 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (3)

On gold:
"All gold analysts are saying the SNB pegging the SF against the Euro is bullish gold as it is becoming last man standing safe haven choice. What happened next surprised me as gold falls over $100 after this so called bullish news. Why has that happened? Are the funds who were over leveraged longs of SF (and probably same people long gold too) having to raise cash for margins? Is it a case of buying rumour and selling the fact? What will happen to gold if Japanese/Norwegians/Singaporeans follow the SNB lead? Do you have any potential buying levels on the charts for gold in mind having seen yesterday's reversal signal? Well done for exiting your silver longs but deciding when to buy back in a volatile bull market like this can become very tricky too.

"Too many questions i know ............so take your choice and if you are too busy to answer please do not worry!"

David Fuller's view Thanks for these questions which are certainly of general interest.

Gold (weekly & daily) had rallied strongly to test its August high where at least some hesitation could be expected given last month's peak with a key day reversal. Also, fear factor buying had been dominant, as mentioned in the Audio, so the stock market bounce would have created a temporary headwind for bullion which is also currently overextended relative to its 200-day moving average.

I would not expect CHF or any other currency holders, who may have mistakenly viewed the stronger fiat currencies as gold proxies, to all pile immediately into bullion on the announcement of the SNB's intervention. However, I maintain that the central bank's move can only increase interest in gold.

I do not have a specific level in mind for buying gold but my favoured strategy for over a decade is to buy on setbacks and lighten, if holding futures, on rallies. Re silver (weekly & daily), it is tricky knowing, or even seeing at the moment in these volatile conditions, when to get back in. I missed an opportunity this afternoon.

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