Email of the day
"Having read your Friday comments, I think another factor that could easily cause an additional shift towards risk aversion is the continued political dithering around dealing with Greek debt problems (and in turn, the other sovereign debt problems of the Eurozone periphery). Current strategy seems to be to paper over the cracks as they appear (austerity and bailouts etc.) but recent talk of 're-profiling' Greek debt together with what could be surprisingly effective demonstrations in Spain (which could easily spread to other affected Eurozone countries) could suggest that this strategy may not be sustainable. The market is assuming that, when push comes to shove, the Germans will not let the Euro project fail but this assumption just needs to start to be questioned for confidence to erode quite quickly. I recognise that none of this is new but the longer these problems are glossed over, is there not a greater chance that the German electorate may balk at the numbers they're expected to stump up irrespective is what Ms Merkel says?"
David Fuller's view The eurozone's problems with debt, particularly
among peripheral countries, certainly remain a source of concern not least as
everyone knows that there is no easy solution. I assume that the European Stabilisation
Fund, to which each member state contributes, will be called upon for more funds.
The Lisbon Treaty (basically Euroland's Constitution) also has a provision for
enactment of a federal tax on individuals. None of these bailout measures would
be popular but I assume that any protests by the German electorate will be largely
confined to the ballot box, not least in 2013, rather than the streets.
While
there does not appear to be any formal procedure for leaving the single currency,
simply because the matter has never been addressed, I have never assumed that
it was a club that countries could join but never leave.
It will
be fascinating to see how all of this plays out over the next many years. Meanwhile,
the crisis would seem to have strengthened Germany's hand. I maintain that there
will be a euro for so long as Germany wishes to remain in a single currency
agreement which will eventually become DEM-lite.
On the
theme of risk aversion in the email above, I would caution against focussing
on all of the things that could go wrong in the world, which is what the crowd
tends to do during a correction. As pessimism increases, market history shows
us that we should become more optimistic. After all, valuations improve in a
corrective phase.
Also,
long-term equity investing is mainly about companies, not the euro or the US
dollar or the economy. I maintain that the number of cash-rich companies is
a good reason for optimism. Market setbacks give us opportunities to buy them
more cheaply.
Subscribers
may be interested in this article from today's Financial Times: Rivers
of riches (link may require subscription, PDF
also provided).