"Thanks for your chart on Silver from its 200 MA for last 10yrs. Would it be possible to pull the chart further back to the 80s when Silver went ballistic? It would be interesting to see how far extended it was then. Thanks again!"

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for this suggestion. Here is an updated indicator showing silver's overextension relative to the 200-day MA in percentage terms.

You will see that diversions of 40% have occurred on a number of occasions over the last 30 years but that the 1980 spike to more than 130% was a relatively rare example of an accelerated secular trend ending. The present overextension to the MA is currently still more comparable to those posted since 1983.

There is a reasonably strong likelihood that the secular bull market in precious metals will once more end in gold and/or silver fever but that is not a situation which is currently evident. I believe that the most likely outcome from the current advance is that another reversion to the mean will unfold. A reaction of greater than $4, sustained for more than a day or two, would now be required to begin to question the consistency of the advance.