Email of the day (2)
Comment of the Day

February 08 2013

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (2)

on Indonesian stocks and The Chart Seminar in 2013
“Martin Spring's recent letter covered individual companies from the Indonesian exchange (attached), half of which are not available in the chart library. Can you have the chart people put on the case?

“Also, has FM put a Fall 2013 London edition of TCS on the calendar?”

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for your interest in The Chart Seminar. We are in the process of finalizing dates for this year's venues and will release them once formalized. I have added all the Indonesian shares mentioned in Martin Spring's letter to the Indonesia section of the Chart Library.

This article from Bloomberg on the profitability of Indonesia's banking sector may also be of interest. Here is a section:

As profitable as lending in Indonesia is, banks have made loans to only 28 percent of the population, or about 67 million people, according to World Bank data. Loans outstanding at the country's 120 commercial lenders totaled $272 billion at the end of November, according to central bank data. That's about 30 percent of 2011's gross domestic product, the lowest loans-to- GDP ratio among major Asian markets, said Stephan Hasjim, a Jakarta-based analyst at Nomura Holdings Inc.

Neighboring Singapore and Malaysia have loans-to-GDP ratios of 150 percent and 125 percent respectively, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, based on cumulative loans outstanding at the end of the most recent month for which data is available and 2011 GDP figures.

Economic expansion in Indonesia, the world's 16th-largest economy, will average 6.4 percent from 2013 to 2017, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimated in a Nov. 18 report. Its GDP was $846 billion in 2011, according to International Monetary Fund data.

The low penetration of loans in the domestic economy represents an additional bullish element from an investment perspective because as the banking sector develops and living standards improve demand for credit will increase and help to spur additioal consumer demand. The Jakarta Finance Index has been outperforming the wider market since March 2012 and the ratio is currently testing the upper side of its four-year range. While their is some short-term scope for underperformance, a sustained move below 0,13 would be required to check potenital for additional favoruable interest in the banking sector over the medium term0.

The JCI Index is somewhat overbought as it tests the 4500 level and while their is potential for some consolidation of recernt gains, a sustained move below the 200-day MA, currenlty near 4225m, would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

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