Email of the day (2)
Comment of the Day

November 05 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (2)

on Starbucks, hectorite and Star Wars (received on Friday):
“ Wow, big upward dynamic in SBUX this morning, as in BIG... . That will buy me a bunch of latte breve's.

“ ELM returned to kiss it's 200dma and had a nice bounce upwards... the green stuff on the ground near their southern desert mine is Bentonite, which is used for filtering beer and for... drilling fluids in the oil and gas drilling biz. Elementis' sales of bentonite are growing quickly. And the hectorite they are also mining from that mine continues to give them a strategic advantage as a component supplier to the antiperspirants business. What happens to the lithium they might decide to extract from the hectorite processing continues to be a mystery :))).

“ DIS bought the Star Wars franchise, which must have irritated some skitzy traders, but which should excite the real investors. Disney is planning 5 new Star Wars movies (wow, like wow). Lucas had not done anything with his legacy in years, other than to try to milk the books and toys. Disney is betting (correctly, I think) that the many hundreds of millions of Star Wars fans will attend well-done movies in the future. It looks like it will still do some more mean reversion, but the long-term business prospects sure look good to me.

“ Hope you guys are doing well :) And I hope your weather is unusually fabulous! ”

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for highlighting Starbucks' impressive upward dynamic on Friday. US sales that were well ahead of expectations and contributed to the return of demand in this area. Prices have pushed back up above the 200-day MA and are testing the psychological $52 area which represents the lower side of the overhead trading range and the September peak. A sustained move above this region would indicate a return to demand dominance beyond the short term.

Starbucks is representative of a number of high profile consumer shares that have experienced some trend deterioration over the last few months. McDonalds is another. The share encountered resistance in the region of the 200-day MA in July and again in September and has dropped back to the test the lower boundary of the four-month range near $86. A clear upward dynamic similar to that posted by Starbucks will be required to offset potential for a further test of underlying trading.

Nike dropped below the 200-day MA in June and encountered resistance at it in September. If found at least short-term support last week near $90 but will need to sustain a move above $100 to indicate a return to medium-term demand dominance.

NuSkin Enterprise dropped abruptly in April, in sympathy with Herbalife following
rumours that Jeremy Einhorn was shorting the stock. It has since stabilised near $40 and posted a failed downside break in September. While somewhat overbought in the very short-term a sustained move below $40 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional higher to lateral ranging.

Thanks also for regaling the dinner table at the Contrary Opinion Forum last month with how you discovered Elementis' hectorite mine in the desert while off-roading. Hectorite is one of those less remarked upon elements which are essential to industry. As you point out it is also a source of lithium. This news release from Western Lithium details their plans to open a hectorite mine in Nevada for the purposes of extracting lithium.

Elementis remains in a relatively consistently uptrend and has unwound its overbought condition relative to the 200-day MA. It found at least short-term support last week and a sustained move below 200p would be required to question medium-term scope for additional higher to lateral ranging.

I agree that there is every chance Disney will eventually succeed in milking the Star Wars franchise for everything it is worth.

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