Email of the day (2)
Comment of the Day

July 23 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (2)

On what to do with euros
"Even though I am a very long-term subscriber, and a visitor of 3 Chart Seminars this email is probably the 1st time I have written to you. Ii have just sold an apartment in Paris which I owned for a long time, and so I have got a few Euros floating around. My natural inclination would be to convert the proceeds back to AUD or HKD for investment purposes, but the AUD and even the NZD & SGD have an almost perpendicular rise against the EURO. Do you assess those rises as a final blow off or would you look for a "KEY DAY REVERSAL" before you see the Euro weakness coming to an end. I would appreciate your comments?"

David Fuller's view Nice to hear from you and thanks for your long-term interest in Fullermoney and TCS.

You are also prescient because this daily chart of EUR/AUD shows a small upside key day reversal today.

As an experienced investor it is usually a good idea to follow your "natural inclination", but as you have presumably also considered, you may not want to convert out of euros immediately or all at once. Today, every bank forex department is heavily short euros, so it is a candidate for a bounce. We could even see a bear squeeze if the ECB produces a reassuring surprise but given the nature of the eurozone's problems, I think it would be premature to look for a "final blow off" anytime soon. I also maintain that a soft euro is part of the ECB's plan.

To follow your inclination, you could convert out of euros incrementally on the euro's next technical rally which may not be that far off, judging from today's upside key. Alternatively, if you think this important reserve currency has a reasonable future, you could invest your euros in some of Europe's high-yielding Autonomies or Dividend Aristocrats which Eoin reviews periodically.

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