Email of the day (2)
Comment of the Day

December 12 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (2)

On a research report:
"Many thanks for your and Eoin's wonderful commentaries and audios. No one else is quite able to filter the daily "noise" and put world markets and events in an understandable context the way you do. I'm wondering if you would care to comment on Gary Schilling's latest Insight?"

David Fuller's view Thank you for your generous comments and for the report. It is a private service which I do not have permission to post. I wish Fullermoney could comment on every worthwhile report which we receive but unfortunately there are not enough hours in the day. However, it is detailed research from a very experienced source and I found myself more often in general agreement than disagreement.

The best observation that I can make when assessing any research is to suggest the following filter questions:

1. Does it make sense to you? There is obviously a subjective aspect to this assessment but the same can be said about the research conclusions under consideration, and our own individual perceptions often improve with experience.

2. Investigate the overall track record of the service or individual considered, preferably on the basis of your own observations rather than promotional summaries. This will familiarise you with the authors' biases in addition to discernable results.

3. Price is the best overall arbiter of all market forecasts. Subject them to reality checks in the form of medium-term price action. To do this I generally prefer to use weekly candlestick charts showing at least 5 years of data, plus a 200-day moving average.

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