Email of the day (2)
Comment of the Day

December 05 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (2)

on gold and how to invest in it:
"Thanks again for the excellent service throughout a seesaw last 6 months

"Both you and David appear confident about the prospects for the Gold Price in the medium term I would like to participate here but an not confident in my ability to trade futures..

Could you recommend some instruments in the following areas?

"Gold ETF & Gold Miners Investment Trusts/ETFs"

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for your kind words. Investment demand for gold remains robust. Within the context of the uptrend from the 2008 low, the acceleration earlier this year represented a deviation from the previous pattern of demand dominance. A somewhat lengthier period of ranging and consolidation was likely following that event as prices reverted towards the mean, represented by the 200-day MA.

Gold prices pulled back sharply to the MA in a very short period of time and have subsequently ranged higher in a comparative steady recovery. A successful upward break sometime in the first half of next year is a reasonable expectation given the chart action and gold's record of hitting important peaks in March/April.

It should be noted that confidence does not make us money. Our views need to be constantly tempered by the price action.

With regard to gold mining shares oriented funds, there tends to be some variability in results depending on whether a fund focuses on large, mid or small cap shares.

The Blackrock Gold & General Fund has performed more or less in line with the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index. In the US, the Market Vectors Gold Miners Index has a similar pattern. The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners Index has underperformed somewhat over the last year.

As veteran subscribers will be aware, we favour physical gold ETFs because there are considerably fewer questions about who actually owns the gold and they do not use derivatives to mimic gold's price action.

In the UK Lyxor Gold Bullion Securities and ETFS Physical Gold hold physical gold and have Pound and US Dollar versions.

In the USA SPDR Gold Trust and Sprott Physical Gold Trust both hold physical gold bullion and are denominated in US Dollars.

In Australia ETFS Physical Gold holds physical gold and is denominated in Australian Dollars.

In Switzerland the ZKB Gold ETF holds physical gold and is denominated in Swiss Francs. The Julius Baer Physical Gold Fund also holds physical gold and has Euro and Swiss Franc versions.

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