Email of the day (2)
Comment of the Day

September 15 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day (2)

On an article from MoneyWeek:
I don't know if you ever read MoneyWeek, if not and if you are interested I could scan and send to you the article "Why America's pensioners will handbag the world's biggest stockmarket". The reason I think you may be interested is that it supports your oft mentioned theme of "secular valuation contraction" with a bit of evidence related to the proportion of the population in middle age versus old age. It uses data from 1954 and cites examples of other countries and is fairly compelling, so may be of interest to the collective.

David Fuller's view Many thanks for this article, contributed in the spirit of Empowerment Through Knowledge.

I do indeed expect further valuation contraction, as discussed in some detail in response to Email 2 on Tuesday, although this need not necessarily mean lower stock markets. GDP growth (admittedly a challenge in the west) and higher corporate profits will lead to valuation contraction in a predominantly ranging market.

David Stevenson makes some good points regarding the potential influence of baby boomer retirements. However, there will be other important influences as well. Older investors may hold on to higher yielding equities while interest rates and government bond yields remain so low. Also, the supply of equities for many top companies has been shrinking due to share buyback programmes. Money printing and moderate inflation will also be tailwinds for equities. Successful multinational companies will find earnings growth beyond their home country shores.

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