Email of the day (2)
Comment of the Day

August 08 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (2)

On silver:
"Thanks for the great service. Back in Apr of this year, silver had a parabolic ascend to its multi-year high. It subsequently came down toward its 200 MA. David and Eoin mentioned several times in the audio that gold might be susceptible to a mean reversion because of its price relative to 200 MA. What are your views on silver? I understand that silver is high beta gold and has more industrial usage than gold. Does the upcoming mean reversion in gold apply to silver as well? What is your expectation for the price of silver by the end of this year?

Eoin Treacy's view Thanks for the feedback, plus a question of general interest for most subscribers.

Silver (weekly & daily) remains one of the most frequently discussed markets in Fullermoney and this link to 26th April discusses the medium-term peak back then and the mean reversion process.

Today, gold (weekly & daily) is less overstretched than silver in late April but it has become overextended relative to its MA once again and is therefore susceptible to a pause and partial mean reversion before long.

Silver's recent rally was checked by a downside key day reversal last Thursday; it also had a weekly key last week, and mean reversion by gold could easily be a temporary headwind for the gray metal. Nevertheless silver appears to be in a support building phase overall, which commenced in mid-May. With favourable seasonal factors ahead, I expect silver to be higher by yearend. More important than my view, a clear break of the MA would be required to challenge this outlook.

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