"As regards economic (as opposed to financial market) forecasts I pay attention to ECRI since they appear to have a good track record. They foresee a slowdown in industrial production worldwide till around the end of this year rather than a "soft patch" for a month or two.

If they are right, is this consistent with your "most probable" prediction of a rise in financial markets towards the end of this year?

David Fuller's view More or less. Although Mr Bernanke expressed surprise as to the slowdown, Fullermoney maintains that the main culprit was the spike in crude oil (WTI & Brent) between December 2010 and May of this year. Historically, such action has never failed to induce a slowdown, often in proportion to the spike. I do not have a chart of GDP data but you can also see spikes in WTI coinciding with highs for the S&P 500 Index.

To state my view more precisely - while much of the analytical fraternity has been talking about Greece being Lehman Brothers write large, the US economy sliding back into recession and China's "bubble" bursting - Fullermoney has been looking for a growth slowdown and stock market correction.

Provided the June lows for stock markets hold there is a reasonable chance that the correction lows have been seen. Weaker commodity prices will lower inflationary concerns. Consequently GDP (a lagging indicator) could pick up before yearend. Stock markets would anticipate this. (Please listen to the Friday Audio for a more detailed assessment of these prospects.)