"Many thanks for an excellent Chart Seminar last week in London - I regard the TCS as Personal Development critical for the well-being of any serious investor. Furthermore it's an ideal forum for meeting like-minded investors who both support & challenge many of my investment paradigms.

"You spoke on Thursday about the tightening of the money supply across the globe referring to the yield gaps between short and long term government bond rates. I'd really appreciate it if you post the relevant charts for the US, Great Britain, India, China & Brazil. Many thanks again"

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for your kind words and I am delighted you enjoyed attending your second one of my seminars. An inverted yield curve, where the 2-year yield is higher than the 10-year yield, has been a reliable lead indicator for US recessions over the last few decades. That is one of the primary reasons for keeping an eye on the spread. However, it also gives us additional information. When the spread is close to a peak, as it is today, it reflects particularly easy monetary policy. We have 10-year - 2-yr spreads for a number of countries in the Chart Library.

While the correlation between an inverted yield curve and recessions is only evident for the USA, the trajectory of spreads for other countries is illuminating with regard to the position of their respective monetary policies. The USA and the UK have yet to embark on the path to policy normalization. The Eurozone, Switzerland and Canada have begun to remove monetary stimulus. Australian, Indian and Chinese spreads suggest that inflation is much more of a perceived concern in these countries and has been met with tighter monetary conditions.

I added the Brazilian spread for US Dollar denominated debt to the Chart Library because it is more liquid and has more back history.