Email of the day (2)
Comment of the Day

March 09 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (2)

on Robusta coffee:
"The Coffee Robusta price chart which was discontinued in 2009.can it be used and is it relevant to the current price chart on the 1st month contract. Hope that makes sense."

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for this question which may be of interest to other subscribers. This link to Comment of the Day on January 28th 2009 has some additional information on the reason for the contract change. In summary, the contract now refers to 10 tonnes instead of 5 and the quality of coffee accepted is higher. The new revised robusta coffee contract picked up where the old contract left off, so while the reference quantity is different, I believe it is reasonably safe to assume that the back history on the old contract is relevant.

The revised contract took some time to gain traction as producers adapted to the new requirements. Arabica outperformed considerably from early 2009 and Robusta is still lagging. Both remain in persistent medium-term uptrends but are becoming increasingly overextended relative to their respective 200-day MAs. The risk of a reversion to the mean is rising and a break of the short-term progression of rising reaction will probably signal the onset of such a corrective phase.

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