Email of the day (2)
Comment of the Day

February 10 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (2)

on oil industry innovation:
"Personally I have never bought the peak oil story. As prices have gone up, in supply and demand, we never take all the oil in place of what is there out of the ground in any rock formation in the first place.

"Just from a scientific and engineering point of view and perspective, even in the North Sea with energy majors where change is slow to implement, fractures (cracks in formations in simple terms) when handled correctly still yield a high degree of probability that oil will come to the surface.

"What will save the U.S. is technology such as what is described here. As long as innovation is allowed to flourish, energy solutions are to be had by shear brazen attitudes and a 'can do' spirit by the real energy mavericks who are always the small producers. You can thank the T Boone Pickens and the Jack Gallaghers of the world for being the backbone of the visionary side of this industry where the majors and adapters then follow.

"That's the nature of this industry and that is positive news for U.S. economic growth in the long term, as it redefines its economy making certain energy supply is never at threat despite what analysts sometimes alarm others about.

"The oil shale story has long been known by industry insiders and visionaries. This is already starting again for its own potential good to be realised and for the U.S, with supply challenges at times, not a moment too soon. Shortages at times for Cushing may be a worry but opportunities to be had are still very much alive in some U.S. states. The North American balance will be accentuated when further Alberta oil sand and planned Saskatchewan/North Dakota Bakken supply are finally accounted for, at times in the mix when energy statistics are calculated, examined and tabulated."

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for this insightful email and the attached article by James MacPherson for the Associated Press. The exploitation of unconventional natural gas such as shale, sand and tight gas have been a game changer for the energy sector. The expansion of shale oil production could also help to moderate the pace of oil's advance over the medium to longer term.

Chesapeake Energy broke out of its base last week and a clear downward dynamic would be required to check potential for additional upside. Anadarko remains a leader and is testing its 2008 peak. Apache Corp found support in the region of the April 2010 peak in late January and would need to sustain a move below $110 to check potential for some additional higher to lateral ranging. Noble Energy consolidated above the April peak from October and reasserted it medium-term uptrend last week. Devon Energy broke out of a more than yearlong range in December and remains in a relatively consistent short-term uptrend. A sustained move below $80 would be required to post a larger reaction and break the progression of higher reaction lows. Forest Oil has posted a progression of higher major reaction lows since March 2009. It has paused below $40 but a sustained move below $32 would be required to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend.

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