Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

June 10 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (1)

is behavioural finance dead?
"Thursday again? Last night at 1am as I was submerged in a new book on behavioral finance, I had one of those thoughts that helps you to close the book and go to sleep. With 85%+ of trading being driven by programs, quants, flash and whatever else. We are in a global market where, more often than not, there is a cold blooded, non emotional computer on the other side of your trade. Trend following or scalping, does it make a difference? The question I'd like to open up here "is behavioral finance dead?" If there is not an emotional being on the other side of 85% or more of your trades?"

Eoin Treacy's view Thanks for an interesting question which I'm sure others are also asking. My own view is that this is something of a chicken and egg scenario because even the most cold-blooded algorithm is still programmed by a hot blooded emotional human being along with all of their foibles and preconceptions. More importantly, look at a price chart and ask yourself these questions: Can I see evidence of rhythmic trends developing, progressing and ending? Do I see evidence of investors panicking in and panicking out of positions? If the answer is yes, then a behavioural reading of chart action is still as effective now as it ever was before. Computers running positions exhibit all the same crowd characteristics as human beings despite the best efforts of the quants programming them. As you will remember from the Chart Seminar, the financial markets are manmade resources for us to harvest when timing is right. This hasn't changed

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