Email of the day (1)
“Please find attached a report plus slides from DNB Markets on the long term trends of the oil market. DNB got considerable media coverage with their bold – and disputed – forecast in the summer of 2012 that 2013 and 2014 oil prices would drop from the levels seen in 2011 and 2012. So far DNB has been right. Well, since last summer many other analysts have had to change their earlier optimistic (i.e. high) oil price scenarios to take into account the shale revolution and weaker demand. DNB Markets confirms its earlier predictions of cheaper oil in coming years, but not a return to cheap oil as such. The report includes a good overview of the North American shale revolution.”
Eoin Treacy's view My comment – Thank you for another in is this series of what i regard as invaluable reports sure to be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
But does that mean Saudi Arabia will choose to cut to protect prices this time? We are not sure. The fact is that Saudi Arabia does not really need a certain oil price to balance their budget, the kingdom needs revenues. The revenues from oil sales are a function of both price and volume. It is of course not a factor of price alone. Here is some food for thought when it comes to what kind of strategy Saudi Arabia will choose the coming years:
Currently Saudi Arabia is producing about 9.8 million b/d which at 100 $/b is worth 358 billion USD per year. If as an example Saudi Arabia have to cut output by 1.5 million b/d to 8.3 million b/d to maintain 100 $/b, revenues will drop to 303 billion USD per year. How far can the oil price drop and still provide the same revenues of 303 billion USD per year? The answer is 85 $/b. Saudi Arabia could in other words earn the same oil revenues by maintaining production at 9.8 million b/d and let the oil price slip to 85 $/b as the kingdom would receive by cutting output to protect the oil price. This is just an example to illustrate the strategic choices that could soon face Saudi Arabia. The benefit for the kingdom of maintaining output at a higher level to a lower oil price is that it would provide a larger oil market share for them, and also probably higher global oil demand.
What the kingdom will choose to do is not “written in stone”. During the 1980's the Saudis cut massively to protect the oil price but changed that tactic after losing too much market share and then targeted volume instead. This time it might be a better strategy to let prices slide towards 85 $/b instead. The Saudis are fully aware of the cost curves for the shale oil industry and they know that many sellers would disappear if the oil price drifted lower than 80 $/b. Why not let the market take care of this adjustment and just let oil prices slide 15-20%? As already described if the price falls more than that, then non-OPEC will come to the rescue instead and start cutting output (drilling less shale wells).
My view – It has been our view at Fullermoney since at least 2010 that shale oil and gas represent a game changer for the energy sector, not least because the additional supply unlocked with new technology and an innovative state of mind among wildcatters changes the dynamics of the market.
One of the oldest adages in the commodity markets is that the cure for high prices is high prices and this has proven to be the case once more in the energy markets. The high nominal price of oil, particularly compared to the price of US natural gas encourages substitution and development of new technologies to use the cheaper commodity.
Brent crude is likely to trend lower in real terms over the medium to long-term. In the short-term, political upheaval in a number of Middle Eastern countries represents a risk of higher prices, but a sustained move above $120 would be required to question the medium-term trend of lower to lateral ranging.